Redăm integral în limba engleză introducerea analizei privind evoluţia războiul din Siria şi actorii implicaţi. Experţii de la Intelligence Fusion au analizat implicaţiile acordul dintre Turcia și Rusia pentru a crea o zonă demilitarizată și rolul trupelor americane în Siria.
Pentru o consultare amănunţită, analiza partenerilor noștri britanici de la Intelligence Fusion poate fi accesată aici.
A Political Analysis of Global War in Syria
Fears of a final all-out assault in Syria’s civil war were stayed by the creation of a buffer zone in Idlib, Syria in September. However, the question of its permanence hangs in the balance. As the deadline came and went for Idlib’s rebel groups to remove themselves and their heavy weapons from the area, both seem to have remained. The recent United Nations General Assembly week and General Debate have given us some insight into what the war’s international actors’ motivations and strategies may be. These actors include the United States, Russia, Turkey and Syria.
On 17 September, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres praised Turkish and Russian efforts to create a buffer zone in Idlib, to “avert a full-scale military operation and provide reprieve for millions of civilians.” Secretary-General Guterres and several UN Representatives have long stated that there is only a political solution to the war, and not a military one. However, this remains to be seen, as tensions continue to mount amongst the many international actors involved in the war, both within Syria and the United Nations.
This announcement followed the declaration on 11 September by the Western Coalition that it would respond to any chemical weapons use by the Syrian regime with force. The representative of the United States stated in the Security Council that the Russian Federation and Iran had violated the last de-escalation zone in Syria, thus ignoring the need for protection of civilian life. The United States further asserted that the actions of the two aforementioned Member States would surely prevent others from paying to reconstruct Syria after the war.
If Syria and its allies fail to uphold international treaties and agreements, they will further dissolve global trust, and increase their alienation, weakening their stance in the almost inevitable peace and reconstruction talks to come.
The Syrian Civil War has reportedly been ending for some months. With the fall of the city of Daraa to Syrian regime forces, Idlib province stands as the last rebel-held area in the country. As such, it holds thousands of civilians as well as rebels who have taken refuge there over the course of the seven-year war. While it stands as the final roadblock for pro-Assad forces to regain full control of their country, aside from the Kurdish-held north, it now holds so many civilians that the international community has condemned any such attack against the city. Global leaders have expressed concerns of another chemical weapons attack and have recounted the extreme difficulties aid workers have had getting in and out of the war-torn country to aid its people after such attacks.
Report by Clare Adams, Associate Analyst Intelligence Fusion